The fear of a recession looms over the United States. And as the cliche goes, whenever the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. This is evident from the way the Indian markets crashed taking a cue from a probable recession in the US and a global economic slowdown. Weakening of the American economy is bad news, not just for India, but for the rest of the world too.

However India's GDP is mostly consumer-driven, adding that India was least dependent on exports.

I dont think India is in a depression, India's growth in 08-09 is a healthy 7.3% and it is expected atleast 6.5% growth in 09-2010.

Its just that the export sector has dried up a bit and hence the performance of export dependent industries like IT/ITES is down and the same is reflected in GDP figures as the share of IT/ITES is 20% in Indian exports. But the domestic consumption is not down with the sixth pay commission playing a big role in spurring consumption in the Indian consumer. All in all the Indian economy has proved that it is insulated from the global economy to a large extent esp. US, Europe and the west. The asian markets continue to perform well.

There is one more good news for Asian market as Japan's economy returned to growth in the second quarter, ending its longest recession since World War Two, but analysts warned of a rocky road ahead as the nascent recovery was based on short-term stimulus efforts around the world.

The worst is over for India and in the next two to three quarters from now the economy would be on its path of recovery, global financial services major Macquarie said.

"We will see a slow recovery as we go forward"

The train of recession recovery has come to station and all Indians are into the train now, engine has started moving slowly. Train of recovery will gear up its speed after covering some more distance. So we will soon reach to our next destination.

World will see India soon on top again with over and above 10% growth in GDP.

Chuk De India.

Vinay Gurav

H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)

Hi guys its been so long time since I baked some thoughts. Now this is a serious thought to be shared with you all guys, since swine flu is spreading everywhere. I want to share these things which I have collected from various sources regarding how to avoid swine flu. You guys can add up more if you get more information or some good tips or links leading to good source on this.

Swine flu is an infection caused by a virus. It's named for a virus that pigs can get. People do not normally get swine flu, but human infections can and do happen. The virus is contagious and can spread from human to human. Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to the symptoms of regular human flu and include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue.

There are antiviral medicines you can take to prevent or treat swine flu. There is no vaccine available right now to protect against swine flu. You can help prevent the spread of germs that cause respiratory illnesses like influenza by

• Covering your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
• Washing your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. You can also use alcohol-based hand cleaners.
• Avoiding touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.
• Trying to avoid close contact with sick people.
• Staying home from work or school if you are sick.

source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

A System of Economy, Strategies, Politics, Innovation & Talent

Every management school beginning from Harvard to IIMs have solved various cases right since US Great Depression in 1929 to the current economic crisis. These studies should in fact be a lantern for our future guidance. Looking into these case solutions some rules and regulations are made at a very strategic level which stands like a lighthouse for sailing ships without which they may hit some huge block as we've hit now. Our current status resembles that we are trying to save ourselves of a sinking ship. Some are on hopes that a rescue troop will be released to save them.

The current economic crisis has again proved a very conventional thought which says "History Repeats". Well! that is a different aspect, wherein the system has failed to implement those strategies. And don't forget that we are all a part of the same system. Very seldom it happens where strategies are made at simple implementation level. Once such good example is TATA Nano which was a dream turned thought, which has finally turned into action at implementation level. Well! there are many others who are still in their strategic level.

No doubt this economic crisis has educated lot of common to executive level people about the earthquakes or volcanic eruptions of the market. It has shown, how the epicenter of the quake has hit the surrounding areas. Well! It can leave only one lesson with us, that is we need to build a very strong foundation to withstand such disastrous quakes ahead. Any strong foundation needs a lot of thinking and innovation.

Yes, for a country like India, Innovation can be a strong foundation which could never be hit by any quakes. Very unfortunately our country inflows more budget into areas like military, nuclear weapons innovations which are just a mass of destruction. How can 1% budget allocation turn the entire revolution in India. We are recognized among cheap outsourcing resource available all over the world. So we are spending lot of our time in serving other countries turning off our own innovative lamps. Though Govt is doing good in terms of gaining votes by subsidizing farm loans, Janata sevas, etc; as majority of the votes comes from villages. But such packages create lot of imbalance in the system. It is not just one political party leading India should change, but it needs the entire phase shift. The system has to be re-engineered.

Coming to the talent pool in India, it is plenty in numbers getting generated. But the sad part of it is they are getting exported to top MNCs abroad every year. So, how the system has to change when there is no indigenous components to work in it.

Just think over it. People who are talented are working for others in other country and dumb people are leading the young talent of India which will again trap the new talent in the wrong system. Please take a wise decision in choosing one such talent who can lead other talents in the right system, follow the system and stabilize the system.

A Bunny Friday

Good Friday is the Friday before Easter. They enjoy the festival all over the world. In England everyone prepares "Hot Cross Buns" and they have it at the dinner tonight along with some cakes and some wine. Wow it sounds great. Isn't it? So you guys must have already started planning for a party tonight. Well! if you did so, then don't forget me to invite. They sing a song on this day which we used to memorize it during our early school days [Honestly speaking I don't remember in which Class, may be in first standard I guess] . Yes, its the same rhyme which our teacher might have drawn some hot crosses on our hands with a stick for not memorizing it. Because of which we still remember it. Lets all of us say it again-

Hot cross buns!
Hot cross buns!
One a penny, two a penny,
Hot Cross Buns!

If your daughters do not like them,
Give them to your sons.
But if you haven’t any of these pretty little elves,
You cannot do better than to eat them yourselves!

Happy Good Friday to all, let us move back to our work now. I am celebrating it in office, may be some other day with with our clients as well.

Journey of Legendary Run

That day, for no particular reason, I decided to go for a little run. So I ran to the end of the road. And when I got there, I thought maybe I'd run to the end of town. And when I got there, I thought maybe I'd just run across City, then I thought may be I'd run deep into the woods. And I figured, since I run this far, maybe I'd just run across the State. And that's what I did. I ran clear across half of the country. For no particular reason I just kept on going. I ran clear to the ocean. And when I got there, I figured, since I'd gone this far, I might as well turn around, just keep on going. When I got to another ocean, I figured, since I'd gone this far, I might as well just turn back, keep right on going on a run which might become a stand alone legendary run....

When on my way back at other end of the ocean, in the deep shallow region of green woods. I heard a very terrifying sound. I stopped there, tried to figure out what it was. I tried to search all the way I had traveled so far. But I couldn't succeed. Thought of relaxing for somewhere. Fortunately I saw a house with an open door, where I could take some rest. Very interestingly I found that it was the same house where I had a nice sleep before I begun my journey of run. Don't you wonder if it would've been my same old house with a cot of a broken leg in it? Yes, you've got something to wonder about it. Amazingly, something fell on my head while relaxing. Don't think that I am now describing about Isaac Newton's magical apple proving law of gravity. It was a very attractive small piece of red colored thing which was gifted to me by my granny of last winter visit. It was making some terrible harsh sound. Finally I found that it was this sound, which had pulled me back from my legendary long run. Now, you must be wondering about what is that small red thing all about. That red colored thing was my programmed alarm piece ringing “Get up Vinay, you are almost late to office”. Then I got up from my imaginary journey of legendary run and started another-real journey of run to my office....

Do you guys like to go for a run? Then join me to bake up your thoughts here...

Everyone wants to get into IIM

Everyone wants to get into IIMs/IITs these days. Everyone wants to be in top most management school. Everyone wants a very lucrative salary soon after completion of their degree. Everyone wants to be the best in all. Everyone wants to win.

If everyone is the best, then the best becomes average. Then no one is best anymore!

We see that IIMs/IITs number is increasing. Does this mean that bests are being counted among average? Lets create IIMs/IITs for all, but my simple question is Do you have IIM in your DNA? If not then your DNA needs some genetic mutation.

Its all the behaviour of Nature

It has been over a decade, since discussions started all over the world about Global Environmental Warming. Now its the time where Global Economy Meltdown and Global Warming are going hand in hand. The real deal is that these two collaboratively creating a total chaos in Nature. The nature says that it balances itself. We are all under the influence of nature, whether consciously or unconsciously.

This is how we all relate to everything around us. We only feel comfortable when everything around us is in balance. At every moment, all that we desire is to attain balance with all the forces that influence us. Our only aspiration is to neutralize them all.

Nature now makes some changes around, like it starts creating more Environmental scientist, Economists replacing Engineers and Doctors. It creates more Management institutes, Research Centers then Engineering & Medical institutes. Chopping down Jobs in some places and creating them somewhere else who are in need.

You play the game, nature gives the results. Be it positive or negative, we accept it or we reject it. Its all the game of nature.

Do not get panic for these natural activities taking place in and around. Just remember the world was under the rule of reptiles ages ago and now they are all fossils.