
The fear of a recession looms over the United States. And as the cliche goes, whenever the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. This is evident from the way the Indian markets crashed taking a cue from a probable recession in the US and a global economic slowdown. Weakening of the American economy is bad news, not just for India, but for the rest of the world too.
However India's GDP is mostly consumer-driven, adding that India was least dependent on exports.
I dont think India is in a depression, India's growth in 08-09 is a healthy 7.3% and it is expected atleast 6.5% growth in 09-2010.
Its just that the export sector has dried up a bit and hence the performance of export dependent industries like IT/ITES is down and the same is reflected in GDP figures as the share of IT/ITES is 20% in Indian exports. But the domestic consumption is not down with the sixth pay commission playing a big role in spurring consumption in the Indian consumer. All in all the Indian economy has proved that it is insulated from the global economy to a large extent esp. US, Europe and the west. The asian markets continue to perform well.
There is one more good news for Asian market as Japan's economy returned to growth in the second quarter, ending its longest recession since World War Two, but analysts warned of a rocky road ahead as the nascent recovery was based on short-term stimulus efforts around the world.
The worst is over for India and in the next two to three quarters from now the economy would be on its path of recovery, global financial services major Macquarie said.
"We will see a slow recovery as we go forward"
The train of recession recovery has come to station and all Indians are into the train now, engine has started moving slowly. Train of recovery will gear up its speed after covering some more distance. So we will soon reach to our next destination.
World will see India soon on top again with over and above 10% growth in GDP.
Chuk De India.
Vinay Gurav
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